RIVEAL-ES: Development of Bayesian models
An integrative tool, RIVEAL-ES, based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) was produced, combining drivers of change and ES values to enable decision-makers to quantify tradeoffs associated with management options as well as to identify the most effective management targets aiming to increase ES.
The Bayesian network is supported by field data from macroinvertebrates, vascular macrophytes, riparian woody vegetation, diatoms and social surveys. The RIVEAL-ES tool models the 3 ES addressed in Activities 3,4 and 5.
The BBN includes 5 components:
1) global change scenarios that allow users to define different socio-economic and climate change scenarios;
2) disturbance, from changes in the hydrological regime and land use;
3) biotic response;
4) an ecosystem response, and
5) an ES component that estimates changes on each ecosystem service category.
The RIVEAL-ES model was made available on "Tools" at the website (www.riveal.pt).
COORDINATION & DISSEMINATION All Milestones and goals of the original proposal were accomplished and shared in a timely manner on the website of the project and social networks. More than 30 oral and poster presentations were done in webinars, seminars and scientific fora. Besides the website launched in 2019, a dedicated Research Gate log (2020) also shared the outputs. Factsheets (#32) and Science Brief sum the main achievements and were shared during the Final Meeting Seminar, along the results of the activities, and the RIVEAL-ES. Two ICS and 4 Project Reports were done. 3 roll-ups and logo were made by the RIVEAL team. We participated in the TV Program Biosfera and live radio interviews (Barca and Alto Minho). We highlight the ES Special Session, the stakeholders’ workshops and the European Researchers Night, as well as the videos on Carbon stocks and Project dissemination. We surpassed the number of WoS papers and had high-quality (JIF2021 3.383-11.566), as well as presentations (due to more opportunities for virtual participation during and after the pandemic). All Project goals were achieved within the new extended timeline. Desvios
A6. RIVEAL-ES: DEVELOPMENT OF BAYESIAN MODELS The milestones M8: RIVEAL-ES - a decision tool for river management and M9: Science Brief on Decision for river management were not achieved due to the delays motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic in the 3rd year. Nevertheless, considering the FCT-approved extended timeline of the project, this activity continued within the time limit. During the 4th year: There were no detours in this task. All the deviations were surpassed during the project and the solutions contributed to the overall success and even an improvement of the project outputs, its dissemination and to achieve the goals of the proposal.